On June 26, Faith Kipyegon will line up at Stade Charlety in Paris to chase a historic milestone. Becoming the first woman to run a mile in under four minutes. Nike announced this ambitious attempt as part of their “Breaking 4” project, following the success of Eliud Kipchoge’s sub-two-hour marathon. However, veteran track analyst Robert Johnson has a different opinion about 4-mile break.
Though Kipyegon’s credentials as a three-time Olympic champion and world record holder in the 1500m are unquestionable, veteran track analyst Robert Johnson argues that the reality of breaking four minutes in the mile remains daunting.
Meanwhile, Faith Kipyegon’s upcoming attempt to break the four-minute mile barrier on June 26 in Paris has sparked excitement and debate across the running world. But Robert Johnson urges fans to temper their expectations.
Robert Johnson, a respected voice in the athletics community with years of experience as a runner and writer, explains why the feat remains out of reach.
“Faith Kipyegon is undoubtedly one of the greatest middle-distance runners ever,” he says, “but breaking four minutes in the mile? That’s a massive leap from her current best of 4:07.64.”
He points out that even Kipyegon’s 1500m personal best of 3:49.04 converts roughly to a 4:07 mile, highlighting the huge gap she needs to close.
“The idea that better pacing or new shoe technology could make up seven seconds is just wishful thinking,” Johnson adds.
Kipyegon’s recent season opener in the 1000m was spectacular, nearly breaking a world record with a time of 2:29.21. Yet, Robert Johnson breaks down the math:
“If you extend that pace to the full mile, you get around 4:00.08—still just over the barrier. To run under four minutes, she’d have to maintain an even faster pace for an additional 609 meters, which is a monumental challenge.”
However, Robert Johnson’s analysis cuts through the hype, reminding fans to appreciate Kipyegon’s greatness without unrealistic expectations. “Sorry running fans,” he concludes, “a sub-4:00 mile for a woman isn’t happening anytime soon, if ever.”
