Scientist Predicts 4:01 for Faith Kipyegon in Sub-4 Mile Attempt

Faith Kipyegon will chase one of athletics’ most elusive records as she attempts to become the first woman to run under four minutes.

The historic attempt is set for Thursday night at the Stade Sebastien Charlety in Paris, the very track where she shattered both the 1,500m and 5,000m world records in 2023.

While Faith Kipyegon holds world records in both the 1,500m and 5,000m, the mile has remained an untamed frontier. To break the four-minute barrier, she will need to cut an ambitious 7.65 seconds off her current world record of 4:07.64, a staggering task even for one of the greatest middle-distance runners in history.

The Science Behind the Sub-4 Bid

Weighing in on the ambitious attempt is biomechanics expert Dr. Mike Hahn, director of the Bowerman Sports Science Center at the University of Oregon.

Speaking on the LetsRun.com Track Talk podcast, Hahn, who famously predicted Eliud Kipchoge’s 2:00:30 marathon in Nike’s 2017 Breaking2 project (Kipchoge clocked 2:00:25), assessed Faith Kipyegon’s chances.

“It seems like it’s possible. It’s feasible,” Hahn noted.

“Is it probable? That’s another one… but if every single step goes perfectly, it’s possible she can do it.”

Hahn emphasized that the attempt will hinge on maximising every marginal gain, from efficient acceleration and strategic pacing to the energy return from custom Nike footwear.

“If her acceleration off the line is more efficient, she can save quite a bit. If every single step she’s using this shoe exactly correctly, she can save a little bit of energy… it’s only four minutes, right?”

The biomechanics expert believes Faith Kipyegon’s performance hinges on stride frequency, step mechanics, pacing discipline, and fine margins. And while he stops short of predicting she’ll dip under four minutes, his forecast comes tantalisingly close.

His official prediction: 4:01.

Precision Pacing and Peak Conditions

Kipchoge’s Breaking2 project meticulously engineered this attempt. Kipyegon will have elite pacemakers, optimal track conditions, and cutting-edge Nike technology at her disposal. Experts tailored every detail, from footwear to pacing strategy, to give her the best shot at making history

As Faith Kipyegon prepares to take her shot at immortality, the athletics world will be watching. The attempt not only represents a personal milestone for the Kenyan superstar but a moment of inspiration for generations of athletes to come.

Whether she crosses the line in 3:59 or 4:01, Thursday’s race will further cement Kipyegon’s reputation as one of the greatest middle-distance runners in history.

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